Don’t fall for the trap: Why the Raptors cover Game 3 vs. the Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) and Toronto Raptors (0-2) head north of the border for Game 3 of their first-round 2026 NBA Playoff series Thursday. Tip-off at the Scotiabank Arena is 8 p.m. ET and will air on Amazon Prime.

Toronto needs this game to avoid a historically insurmountable 3-0 deficit. Cleveland won and covered the first two games of the series: 126-113 in Game 1 and 115-105 in Game 2.

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Cavaliers All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have torn the Raptors apart in the first two games. Mitchell is averaging 31.0 points per game (PPG) on 55.8% shooting, and Harden is adding 25.0 PPG on 53.1% shooting.

The Raptors have gotten good games from forwards Scottie Barnes (averaging 23.5 PPG) and R.J. Barrett (scoring 23.0 PPG). But their regular-season leading scorer, Brandon Ingram, has been awful, putting up just 12.0 PPG on 33.3% so far this series.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors Odds (DraftKings)

• Moneyline: Cleveland (-155) | Toronto (+130)
• Spread: Cavaliers -3.5 (-102) | RAPTORS +3.5 (-118)
• Total — 221.5 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

Given that Cleveland smacked Toronto in Games 1-2, doesn’t “Cavaliers -3.5” feel like a trap line? I mean, the Cavs only need to win by 4+ points to cover when they’ve won the first two games by double digits. That said, the “Raptors +3.5” almost has to be a contrarian play.

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Furthermore, it’s not all bad for Toronto because it’s splitting the “four factors” with Cleveland. The Raptors need Cavaliers SF Max Strus, Mitchell, and Harden to cool off a bit, but players typically shoot worse on the road.

Speaking of which, I’m expecting Ingram to have a bounce-back game at home, where he plays much better. Ingram averages nearly four points per game at home and shoots better from everywhere on the floor.

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Evan Mobley is Cleveland’s only good defensive starter, and no other Cavalier besides him can shut down Ingram. If the Raptors do a better job of getting him one-on-one against Harden and Mitchell, Ingram will get going, and Toronto can get back in this series.

Raptors starting PG Immanuel Quickley has been injured for the first two games of this series and is “questionable” for Game 3. I’m banking on Quickley returning Thursday because it’s “all hands on deck” for Toronto. He averaged 16.5 PPG and 5.9 assists during the regular season.

Ultimately, the Cavs aren’t that much better than the Raptors, and won’t go up 3-0, which is basically a sweep. Or maybe Cleveland is, and Toronto still covers the spread.

Prediction: Raptors 113, Cavaliers 108

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