iPhone’s debut crushed young women’s fertility, new study says

The first iPhone served as a technological marvel for some, but may have acted as birth control for a significant segment of the female population.

A working paper, published in the National Bureau of Economic Research, discussed a causal relationship between the release of the original iPhone in 2007 and a declining general fertility rate in the United States.

‘The algorithms … are incredible at getting you to keep scrolling.’

While women of all age groups shelled out $499 for the Apple smartphone, women under 25 years old seemed significantly hit by its introduction, according to researchers Caitlin K. Myers and Ezekiel Hooper.

The 22% drop in fertility rate in the U.S. since 2007 is not explained by the economy, contraceptives, housing, or child care costs, the researchers wrote. Instead, the study looks at causal evidence that coincides with the release of the iPhone, combined with other known factors like time use and sexual activity.

The study surmised that access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5%-8.0% among those ages 15-19, as well as between 3.2%-6.6% for those 20-24.

There were also “statistically significant but smaller declines” among older age groups, the study claimed.

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The research went on to say that the diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births for women under 30 overall, while suppressing the rise in birth rates for older women.

In total, the iPhone allegedly explains somewhere between a third and half of the decline in general fertility in women ages 15-44 over the years.

The researchers said that sexual behavior and time use of iPhones are consistent with a reduction of “in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and [reduced] sexual frequency.”

Venture capitalist Nic Carter later pointed to commentary by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in 2025, citing a blog post in which the AI exec said social media algorithms have had the power to override long-term preference for some time.

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While claiming that AI systems will be geared toward achieving what the user really wants over a long period of time, Altman wrote that “social media feeds are an example of misaligned AI.”

Altman continued, “The algorithms that power those are incredible at getting you to keep scrolling and clearly understand your short-term preferences, but they do so by exploiting something in your brain that overrides your long-term preference.”

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