Patriotism is great, but making money is better: ‘Fade the public’ in Team USA vs Australia in World Cup 2026

The 2026 FIFA World Cup heats up this Friday, June 19, as the United States faces Australia in a crucial Group D clash. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET at Lumen Stadium in Seattle, Washington, where a raucous home crowd awaits.

Both nations enter this matchup riding high after multi-goal victories in their World Cup openers. Yet, BetMGM has the Americans as -165 favorites, the Socceroos as +400 underdogs and the draw +320 with a total of 2.5 goals.

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Can Team USA maintain its momentum, or will the Aussies pull off another massive shocker? Here are my main factors for the United States vs. Australia, followed by a best bet.

Christian Pulisic’s injury looms large for Team USA

American attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic left after the first half of the USA’s 4-1 win over Paraguay in their 2026 World Cup opener because of a calf injury.

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According to SICscore.com, Pulisic has a history of calf issues, and he didn’t practice with the team this week. Calf problems can lead to more serious injuries, such as a torn Achilles tendon.

Meanwhile, this is the first World Cup with a 48-team field, and the knockout round now has 32 teams instead of 16.

Between more teams making the knockout round this year and Pulisic’s injury history, there is a 70/30 chance Team USA manager Mauricio Pochettino rests Pulisic on Friday.

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That matters.

In fact, my buddies, who bet on soccer much more often than I do, are saying there has been “load managing” in group play this year because there are more knockout-stage spots available.

Three of America’s goals against Paraguay came in the first half while Pulisic was on the pitch. I’m expecting the USA’s offense to be less explosive against Australia if Pulisic doesn’t play.

The underlying numbers weren’t as pretty as the scoreboard

Furthermore, the United States only had 1.42 expected goals against Paraguay, and America scored off an own goal.

Also, the Aussies shut out Türkiye 2-0 in their World Cup opener. However, they only had 1.18 expected goals and possessed the ball just 28% of the game.

Since Australia was a +425 underdog against Türkiye, the Socceroos essentially stole three points in group play.

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They also had the worst betting odds to win Group D, so with that in mind, the Socceroos will be happy to earn one point by tying the United States on Friday.

This is a classic fade-the-recent-result spot

Ultimately, this is an old-school “fading the recent result” handicapping angle, with Team USA looking amazing in its first game.

Per BetMGM’s John Ewing, 80% of the money is on the Over 2.5 goals at that sportsbook as of Wednesday evening.

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Nonetheless, the Under is pricier at the market-making operations, such as Circa Sports in Las Vegas and the offshore oddsmaker Pinnacle Sportsbook.

Look, I want America to win as much as the next guy.

But, more importantly, I’m trying to make money.

And UNDER 2.5 goals (-115) at BetMGM is the sharper look in this game.

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my “OutKick Bets Podcast” for more betting content and random rants.