Military officials, defense analysts, and critics have warned in recent years about the state of America’s military readiness and the risk of exhausting its stores of critical munitions.
The U.S -Israel war with Iran — a conflict which saw a 39-day bombing campaign with over 13,000 targets struck followed by a fragile ceasefire interrupted in recent days and weeks by additional strikes — has spread America’s missile inventory particularly thin.
According to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the U.S. “has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted inventories have created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict. The time needed to rebuild those inventories has thus become a major concern.”
‘Democrats destroyed our military.’
War Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged during a Senate hearing on April 30 that it will take “months and years” to rebuild the military’s stockpiles of various munitions. The CSIS report attempts to give a better idea of the turnaround for replenishing the stocks of specific systems.
The think tank estimated, for instance, that the U.S. will not be able to replenish its prewar inventory of Tomahawk cruise missiles — over 850 of which were reportedly fired just in the first four weeks of the conflict and fewer than 200 of which are made per year — back to prewar levels until late 2030 or early 2031.
American Enterprise Institute fellows Mackenzie Eaglen and Todd Harrison noted in an assessment last year that the U.S. expended over 150 THAAD interceptors — terminal high-altitude area defense interceptors — defending Israel in June 2025 during its 12-day conflict with Iran.
At the time, that accounted for nearly 25% of America’s total number of THAAD interceptors — each valued at roughly $12.7 million — and reportedly three times the average annual procurement since 2010.
The new CSIS report puts the number of THAAD interceptors used in the current conflict somewhere between 190 and 290.
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Aftermath of a missile strike on a building in Tehran on March 1. ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images
With a projected annual production capacity of 96 THAAD interceptors at the current maximum rate and a potential expanded annual production capacity of 400 in light of the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal for 2027, the CSIS report predicts a replenishment of the prewar stock sometime in mid- to late 2029.
An estimated 1,060-1,430 Patriot missiles — a variety of missile Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently been begging Trump for more of — were fired in and around Iran since Feb. 28. Again, a return to prewar inventory isn’t expected until mid-2029.
The estimated turnaround for replenishing the prewar stock of standard missile-3s is early 2029; standard missile-6s is late 2028-early 2029; joint air-to-surface standoff missiles is mid-2027; and precision strike missiles is late 2026.
The analysts suggested that during this inventory gap, some munitions could be substituted, but swaps will invariably carry with them certain downsides.
“Alternative ground attack munitions, for example, are short- or medium-range and increase vulnerability of the launch platforms,” said the report. “Alternative counter-drone systems are expensive.”
The Trump administration evidently doesn’t share the outlook of the report’s authors.
Following the publication of the CSIS report, White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement to the Military Times that the U.S. military “has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of President Trump’s strategic goals and beyond.”
“Even still, the president has urged our defense contractors to constantly produce more made-in-America weapons, which are the best in the world,” continued Kelly. “Democrats destroyed our military, but President Trump rebuilt it. Think-tank armchair quarterbacks are not read into sensitive information and have no idea what they’re talking about.”
While the military remains tight-lipped about how many missiles and munitions were expended during Operation Epic Fury, the administration was provided with some idea as to how much was spent monetarily.
Jules Hurst III, the Department of War’s acting comptroller, testified earlier this month that the U.S. had spent roughly $29 billion on the war.
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