Why Caitlin Clark's poor ball security means you should fade the Indiana Fever against the Phoenix Mercury

After losing both in a back-to-back against the Atlanta Dream, the Indiana Fever (9-7) begin another two-game series at home vs. the Phoenix Mercury (5-12) Monday. At FanDuel, Indiana’s moneyline is -290 and is a -7.5 favorite on a 177.5 total as of 1:30 p.m. ET.

Before losing their previous two games to Atlanta, Indy had a four-game winning streak. Phoenix crushed the Seattle Storm 93-73 in its last game, snapping a four-game losing skid.

This is the first Mercury-Fever game of the season. Phoenix beat Indiana in two of their three meetings last year. However, Indy covered the spread twice, and Caitlin Clark didn’t play in any of those games.

ANGEL REESE AND CAITLIN CLARK EXCHANGE WORDS IN SECOND DREAM-FEVER MEETING IN THREE DAYS

Over her last five games, Clark is scoring 26.0 points on 49.4% shooting and averaging 8.6 assists. But she continues to be careless with the ball; Clark averages a WNBA-worst 4.8 turnovers per game. This is my favorite reason for taking the points with the Mercury Monday.

Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +7.5, down to +6.5

Clark’s mediocre defense and poor decision-making are why she has a -4.3 on/off net rating this year. She has 48 turnovers from “bad passes,” which is more than three times as many as her next-closest teammate.

As I’ve written a million times when handicapping hoops, the “battle for possessions” is the most important thing in basketball. This is where the matchup favors the Mercury, who have better turnover rates on both ends of the floor.

Caitlin Clark debuts new Nike signature shoe in loss to Atlanta Dream. (Photo by A.J. Mast/NBAE via Getty Images)

Furthermore, Phoenix is the oldest team in the Association, featuring six-time All-Stars, forward Alyssa Thomas and wing DeWanna Bonner. The Mercury’s veterans can take advantage of an Indiana team that makes too many mistakes.

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Also, I’m just going off the stats because I don’t watch much WNBA, but I’m fascinated by Thomas’ game. She has made seven WNBA All-Defensive Teams, ranks second on Phoenix in PER and leads the Mercury in assists per game despite not shooting a single 3-pointer this year.

I like that Phoenix runs its offense through a 6-foot-2 forward (Thomas) who doesn’t take bad shots against an Indiana team that doesn’t have a strong perimeter defense. Plus, the Fever are deadly in transition, but the Mercury can control the flow since they’ll likely win the “battle for possessions”.

Caitlin Clark and the Fever put up a strong performance but lose to Atlanta Dream. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, Phoenix figures to have a “strength-on-weakness” edge on the foul line. The Mercury allow the fewest free-throw attempts per game from their opponents, and the Fever allows the most.

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Lastly, Phoenix has a rest edge over Indiana in this game. This is the Mercury’s third game in the last week, whereas the Fever is playing its fourth game over that span. For the record, I’m expecting Indy to win Monday, but Phoenix +7.5 is a “plus-EV” bet given its matchup edges.