BREAKING: Trump Extends Ceasefire … And the Blockade

Concession? Hardly. Donald Trump has decided to play a long game with Iran, and knows where to hit the IRGC. In its pocketbook.

The regime remnants in Tehran have played games for the last few days about whether they will show up for Islamabad II: Taqqiya Boogaloo, and whether or not the regime will honor any agreement. John reported earlier today that J.D. Vance had postponed his departure until Iran committed to the talks, likely hoping to stall long enough to get Trump to lift the blockade and extend the ceasefire. The blockade is costing the regime over $400 million a day, and contra certain Iran-cheering members of the Senate, the US Navy is making sure that income remains at zero. 

With Iran playing for time, Trump decided to play some strategic jiujitsu with the IRGC. Trump won’t end the ceasefire, but until Iran makes and honors a final deal settling the war, the blockade will remain in place:

STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP:

Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

This is the best position Trump can take, short of a full authorization of military action from Congress. Bombing Iran further will do real damage to Iran’s ability to rebuild later. Cutting off their exports does real damage to the regime’s ability to maintain its hold on power. They can’t pay their rank-and-file thugs, and unemployment will skyrocket even more in the private sector. Iran can still get some imports via land and air – for now – to stave off critical shortages, particularly in munitions, but they will have to rely on credit. And some trading partners may start to worry about the possibility of a successor regime that will repudiate credit lines that went to propping up a tyranny, not to mention Trump’s threats to impose massive tariffs on countries that trade with Iran during the war.

This makes Trump’s position at home easier, too. Technically, offensive military action has ended with Iran; the longer the pause goes, the more justification Trump will have to claim the end of the action in terms of the War Powers Act. If Trump has to eventually returm to kinetic offensive action, he might argue that it’s another event that restarts the 60-day clock. In the meantime, the naval blockade operates against a country that no longer has a blue-water navy of its own and can’t possibly challenge the blockade. 

If Iran wants to play a waiting game, Trump can play that too. Once Iran realizes that, the regime will likely have to start launching attacks again, which would justify another extended round of military action. Chris Murphy might want the US to lose to Iran, but Democrats in general would be playing with fire by forcing a withdrawal while American forces are under attack. 

Plus, the regime has to worry about the oil wells. If Tehran has not reached the limit of its storage capacity for crude, they must be within days of running out. Once that happens, the IRGC will have to start capping wells, and restarting production is no sure thing or simple matter. A lot can go wrong, and they are gambling with decades of income by playing chicken against Trump. 

The Iranians don’t have any more cards to play except refusing to show up, and even that option will eventually be catastrophic. Trump is letting them strangle themselves into collapse, and has little reason to offer them an offramp other than the surrender of the highly enriched uranium and a settlement of all other security threats. As long as Trump can maintain the blockade, the regime is checkmated. 

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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