Cole Allen Believed the Butler, PA Assassination Attempt was Staged (Update)

I can’t get over the reaction from many on the left to what happened over the weekend. CNN even published a story yesterday about the sudden outburst of people claiming Cole Allen’s attack was “staged.”

Some of the best-known journalists in the country were gathered in the Hilton ballroom on Saturday night and immediately got to work establishing the facts of what had happened.

But immediately — before anything was known about the suspect and his motives — the word “staged” started to emerge as a trend across social media platforms…

Former cable news host Keith Olbermann, a prolific anti-Trump voice on social media, posted to his almost one million followers on X late Sunday night, “I’m not saying it was STAGED… YOU’RE saying it was staged! You have DOUBTS? Just because Trump has lied to you every day about every thing for a decade? Just because his people are filth? Shame, cynic!”

The Washington Post estimated that 20% of left-wing influencers were arguing the assassination attempt was staged in the hours after it happened. What’s interesting about this is that Cole Allen himself believed in the same kind of conspiracy theories. Are review of his social media posts shows him echoing a lot of mainstream liberal attacks against Donald Trump, but also he specifically believed that the previous attack in Butler, PA was staged.

By 2024, archived tweets show him resharing political content from other users. Allen repeatedly retweeted posts on X comparing Trump to Hitler, as well as a post advocating for nullifying that year’s election results. In the wake of the attempted assassination of Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, Allen retweeted posts baselessly speculating that the attack could have been staged.

Trump is “quite capable of having staged a fake assassination attempt on himself to trick the American public,” argued one user in a message that Allen retweeted.

So to sum this up, many on the left believe Cole Allen was a plant and Allen himself believes the previous would-be assassin in Butler, PA was a plant. This has a very “turtles all the way down” feel to it. It makes me wonder if the next would-be Trump assassin will be someone who is convinced Cole Allen’s attack was staged. There’s just something about this kind of conspiracy theory that overlaps with people crazy enough to attempt to shoot the president.

Unfortunately, a lot of Democrats believe this stuff. The Manhattan Institute did a survey in March which found that two particular conspiracies about Trump were widespread. First, a strong majority believe that Putin has kompromat on Donald Trump. And a near majority believe the Butler, PA attack was staged.

Nearly two-thirds of today’s Democrats (64%) believe that Vladimir Putin holds compromising information on Donald Trump that the Russian leader uses to sway Trump’s policy positions, and a 47% plurality believe that the July 2024 assassination attempt on Trump was orchestrated by his supporters to increase sympathy for him.

While not garnering a majority, other conspiracy beliefs still register meaningful minority support. 28% say that the September 11th terror attacks were carried out by additional actors other than Al-Qaeda or other Muslim extremist groups, likely orchestrated or permitted by the U.S. government. Roughly one in four (25%) believe that the October 7th attack on Israel was an “inside job” or false flag operation carried out or permitted by the Israeli government as a pretext for the war in Gaza.

The fundamental reason that people engage in conspiracy theories is because of a single, false idea that people are prone to believing: Significant events must have significant causes. Why do 47% of Democrats believe Butler was staged? Because many of them believe that one moment, with Trump injured but surviving and shouting “Fight! Fight! Fight!” played a role in him winning reelection. So because the outcome (Trump’s win) was significant, the shooting which helped him achieve it must have been significant too. Putting it down to the deranged choices of a single nutjob doesn’t feel right. It’s easier to believe something so important was carefully planned.

So in the hours after Allen’s attack Saturday, about 20% of liberals suggested it was staged. But the reasons were similar. They believe Trump is using this to get his ballroom built, or to give him more support to attack Iran or to simply improve the chances of his party in the midterms. All of those are significant outcomes. So, again, people struggle to believe that one off-kilter guy from Torrance, CA could be responsible for that. It’s easier to believe it was part of some carefully made plan.

Bottom line: If the assassination attempt has an impact on Trump’s approval numbers, you’ll probably see a lot more Democrats coming around to the idea that this was staged. And that, unfortunately, lays the groundwork for the next nutcase who takes it as proof that Trump isn’t the victim of a series of left-wing nuts with a desire to murder him, but a master manipulator planning all of this for his own benefit.

Update: This was too darkly funny not to add it. The Bulwark guy arguing with his peeps about Butler being staged.

This is bad and its incumbent upon people with platforms to push back on it. We have rapid fire still photos of Trump grabbing his ear in Butler from the NYT, a man died, Trump was treated by nurses at a hospital. All these people are in on the conspiracy? Lunacy. No… https://t.co/a3bqWz0Y0q

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) April 28, 2026

And a breakdown of the reactions.

The replies to Tim’s post:

20% Righties: Ha ha!
20% Sane people: This is bad.
60% Lefties: Double downs on Butler being staged.

It’s… something.

— Lee (in KY) (@Lee_in_KY) April 28, 2026

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