Democrats’ California Problem: Too Many of Them Scrambling for Power

The disaster caused by the implosion of Eric Swalwell continues to create problems for his fellow Democrats in California. Swalwell not only dropped out of the race for governor, he also abandoned his seat in the House which Democrats did not see coming.

To be clear, Swalwell was not running for re-election to his House seat this year. He could only run for one race at a time and he chose the governor’s race. So the campaign to replace him in the House was already happening before he imploded and hasn’t really changed.

But Swalwell’s decision to abandon his seat last week meant that there is now also a special election to temporarily fill his seat for the remainder of the current term (between now and January). And that creates a problem, because Democrats don’t want to drag this out by having an actual race. They want to pick someone as a caretaker, someone who could start almost immediately.

That special election is set for June 16. The deadline to file to run in the special election is on Thursday.

The reason for the urgency: If any candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the June 16 election, they will be immediately seated in Congress. If not, the seat will remain vacant until a runoff election between the top two candidates on Aug. 18.

So if two candidates enter this and split the vote, then we probably don’t have a result until late August. And that means Democrats are a vote short this summer.

…whoever replaces Swalwell for the rest of his current term could miss key votes on issues like the war in Iran or attempts by President Donald Trump to federalize the midterm elections. A resolution ordering Trump to end the war with Iran this month failed by one vote. 

Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, the chair of the California Democratic delegation, told the Chronicle in a statement Monday that “it’s absolutely crucial that we get one more Democrat ASAP to vote against that agenda. Bob Wieckowski is an experienced leader, and I know that he can work well with our delegation over the next few months to fight Trump’s chaos in Washington. I commend all the candidates for putting the needs of the country ahead of their own political ambitions at this critical time.”

Bob Wieckowski is the guy Democrats chose to act as the caretaker for Swalwell’s seat. And if he runs alone, they can get him in late June. There are six Democrats running in the race to replace Falwell next term. Five of those six candidates have agreed to stay out of the special election and let Wieckowski run unopposed so they can get him in their quickly. But there’s a problem. The sixth candidate has, so far, not signed onto the master plan.

…one Democratic contender, state Sen. Aisha Wahab, has not signed on, according to two people familiar with the document and granted anonymity to describe it…

Wahab’s decision could make or break this effort to consolidate the field. The pledge says that if all the candidates do not agree to sign, “many will run in the special election.”

If Wahab refuses to stay out, others may backtrack as well. With the deadline to enter the special election only two days away, she needs to decide soon.

Meanwhile, the race for governor continues to be a disaster for similar reasons. Simply put, there are so many Democratic candidates that none of them seem able to break out from the pack. Eric Swalwell seemed to be pulling ahead just when his campaign imploded. And that means that with only weeks to go, two Republicans remain at the top of the ticket in a “jungle primary” where the top 2 candidates advance regardless of party.

It was possible that Swalwell’s exit would lead to one of the other Democratic frontrunners—Katie Porter and Tom Steyer—finally taking a clear lead. But at the moment the main beneficiary seems to be Xavier Becerra who, prior to this week, was stuck in the back of the pack.

Mr. Becerra, whose polling numbers had languished for months, has jumped into the top tier of Democratic candidates since Mr. Swalwell’s campaign imploded amid accusations of sexual assault. Four polls in the last week have shown Mr. Becerra as receiving at least 10 percent support, at least twice what he previously had, putting him in contention in a sprawling field of candidates.

But the competition is stiff, and the race remains fluid. Mr. Becerra, who served as health and human services secretary under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., has roughly the same level of support as two other Democrats: Tom Steyer, a billionaire former hedge fund manager, and Katie Porter, a former congresswoman.

So you had a three way tie that Swalwell was just starting to break and now, thanks to him, you have a new three way tie. Democratic leadership is desperately trying to get some candidates to abandon the race and one has, Betty Yee who ran as the candidate who wasn’t tarnished by scandal.

Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, has been encouraging Democrats to drop out if their campaigns did not seem viable. Mr. Hicks on Monday urged flagging candidates to follow Ms. Yee’s example.

“I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field,” Mr. Hicks said as he released the results of a poll that the California Democratic Party commissioned in an effort to thin the field.

Being scandal free doesn’t cut it in today’s Democratic Party. Only one thing does as one of Becerra’s new supporters demonstrates.

“When he mentioned the suing of Donald Trump, I was like, ‘Oh my god, maybe this is the next guy,’” she said.

I realize the president is busy but if he could just spare a moment to attack Antonio Villaraigosa before Villaraigosa drops out of the race, that would be outstanding. 

In fact, Trump should just put whichever Democrat seems to be flagging on blast to make sure Dems rally around him (or her) so we keep this a four-way race. Alternatively, he could say something complimentary about Tom Steyer and Katie Porter to depress their support a bit. If Democrats are going to base every decision on who Trump likes the least, he really should take advantage of that power. Having a Republican shut out in the California governor’s race would be a thing of beauty.

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