The long time oil cartel that once dictated global fuel prices is finally sputtering, and President Trump’s critics might have to eat their words.
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to quit OPEC has sent shockwaves through the world energy market, leaving analysts predicting the end of the cartel’s stranglehold on oil supply and pricing.
For years, OPEC kept production constrained and gas prices inflated while Americans paid the price at the pump.
That model now sits on the edge of collapse.
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The exit of one of its most powerful members signals an unraveling that could not only lower gas prices worldwide but vindicate Trump’s persistent claim that OPEC was, in his words, “ripping off the rest of the world.”
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The PRICE Futures Group, explained what this means for consumers.
“Over time, the breakup of the cartel should cause gas prices to fall. With more player pricing, oil only being contained by market forces should lead to an ounce of supply and lower prices.
Competition is good as it lowers prices and collusion by producers raises prices.”
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In other words, fewer cartel restrictions mean a free market comeback that Trump demanded all along.
The UAE made its bold announcement in late April, declaring it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ by May 1.
The move was immediately viewed as a turning point in modern energy politics.
The small but powerful Gulf nation decided it had had enough of Saudi Arabia’s dominance and OPEC’s artificial market discipline.
Flynn tied the UAE’s exit to larger regional shifts.
“When we look back at one of the strategic victories from Operation Epic Fury, it is that it has changed the face of the OPEC cartel forever and shifted energy dominance from the cartel back into our hemisphere.”
He emphasized that the UAE had grown tired of being second fiddle and wanted freedom to pursue its own expansion goals.
That ambition, he said, could spark a broader wave of departures.
Analysts say that wave could become a flood. The UAE’s plan to boost production from three million barrels per day to five million next year will not go unnoticed by Iraq and others.
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No producer wants to sit still while a neighbor doubles capacity. Once they see the profits flow toward a liberated UAE, the logic to stay in OPEC disappears.
Elaine Dezenski, head of economic and financial power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, called the UAE’s move a major blow.
“The departure removes both production weight and institutional credibility, and that’s got to be a concern to Saudi Arabia and others who remain. I think we’re now seeing one of the final nails in the coffin for OPEC.”
She added that the UAE’s alignment toward the U.S. reflected a broader strategy shift toward Western cooperation.
While some experts like Saudi analyst Salman Al-Ansari argue that OPEC can still survive through coordination and discipline, history says cartels rarely last forever.
Pete Earle of the American Institute for Economic Research reminded that cartel members always face temptation to cheat their quotas, which eventually causes the structure to crack.
Once cheating becomes the norm, the entire foundation collapses.
If OPEC continues unraveling, the implications are enormous.
American consumers would see cheaper fuel, and American producers would likely adapt to a new price equilibrium.
Bernard Haykel from FDD pointed out that while lower oil prices create challenges for some producers, the United States has long shown ingenuity in adjusting to market shifts through innovation and efficiency.
Earle warned that without the cartel, oil prices could become more volatile. Still, he described volatility as a small price to pay for letting free markets rule energy again.
Nations dependent on oil income might face turbulence, but those with adaptive economies will thrive.
“Lower, less stable prices that would possibly translate into domestic instability,” he said, citing Iraq and Nigeria as potential trouble spots.
Most Americans will see this as long overdue justice. OPEC’s behavior for decades reflected centralized manipulation that punished ordinary drivers while enriching authoritarian regimes.
The UAE’s defection breaks with that legacy and rewards open competition, the very policy Trump championed when he called out OPEC’s price scheming.
Even within Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s chief architect, there are internal tensions.
The cartel that once bragged about controlling the world’s most important commodity now scrambles to prove its relevance.
Every statement about “unity” sounds more like anxiety than confidence.
Flynn put it plainly on FOX Business: “OPEC is not only on life support, it is dead in the traditional sense. This is no longer your daddy’s OPEC and oil politics have changed forever.”
He added that Saudi Arabia and Russia still hold influence, but not the absolute power they once enjoyed.
This changing landscape represents a major geopolitical reshuffle. For decades, OPEC’s elite few determined global energy prices while Washington endured the consequences.
Today, that monopoly finally looks broken.
The fact that this shift aligns perfectly with Trump’s long criticized energy diplomacy is more than coincidence.
It is confirmation that free markets, American production, and strong leadership have a way of prevailing over corruption and collusion.
As one analyst summarized, patience is about to pay off.
When the dust settles, gas prices are expected to drop, oil markets will open, and OPEC’s reign of manipulation will be just another chapter in history.
Trump called it years ago.
The world, at last, is catching up.
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