Is Another Russian Mobilization Coming?

Russian parliamentary elections took place last weekend and, to no one’s surprise, Putin’s party solidified its control. There was only one anti-war party in the lead-up to the election and it was removed from the ballot. So basically every party on the ballot is a pro-Putin party. 

With the election behind him, many have wondered if Putin will now announce a new round of mobilization in which hundreds of thousands of soldiers are rounded up to support the war against Ukraine. The last time Putin did this was in 2022.

When the Kremlin called up 300,000 reservists in September 2022 in Russia’s first mobilization since World War II, the announcement sparked an exodus of tens of thousands of Russians and protests in dozens of cities. At least 20,468 of the men who were mobilized in 2022 were confirmed killed as of this month, according to an independent tally.

Confirmed kills are not the same thing as casualties. For every soldier killed there are probably several who have been severely injured and are unable to continue fighting. Since the beginning of this year indications are that Russia has been losing tens of thousands of soldiers every month.

Russian battlefield costs continue to mount, with as many as 450,000 battlefield deaths and 1.4 million casualties between February 2022 and June 2026. These rates are astounding. Russian fatalities in Ukraine are more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II.

In addition, Russia’s monthly casualty rates of over 30,000 per month in 2026 have likely exceeded Russia’s recruitment rates of roughly 27,000 new recruits per month.

Despite the need for more soldiers, Putin has been hesitant to order another mobilization because it is extremely unpopular. And despite the outcome of the election, Putin is already not terribly popular. He doesn’t want to press his luck if he can avoid it. But many observers in Russia are worried that another mobilization is inevitable.

In kitchens and Telegram chats across Russia, the same question is being asked with growing frequency: will Vladimir Putin order another mobilisation?

Nearly five years into the war, Russia is scrambling to find enough soldiers to replenish its ranks, as voluntary recruitment slows and its forces suffer heavy losses on the battlefield in Ukraine…

“The problem for the Kremlin is that it is getting much harder to find people willing to fight, even for crazy money,” said Aleksei Tabalov, a human rights activist and director of an organisation that helps Russian conscripts…

Moscow has avoided another deeply unpopular call-up by relying largely on high paid voluntary contracts to fill the ranks with roughly 1.3 million contract soldiers Russia has recruited since.

The fear of a new mobilization is apparently being used to pressure people into voluntarily signing up.

“The authorities are making extremely effective use of the fear of mobilization,” Idite Lesom spokesman Ivan Chuviliayev told The Moscow Times.

Recruiters tell men that they can still choose some of the terms of their service if they sign a contract voluntarily while warning that they would have no such choice during a mobilization, he said.

“They are building this very effective narrative: ‘Sign a contract now, before mobilization begins. Once mobilization starts, it will be too late’,” Chuviliayev said.

It could even turn out to be true, though the government continues to deny that another mobilization is coming.

Top Russian officials have dismissed reports of an impending call-up, with former president Dmitry Medvedev describing them as “nonsense” and a “lying provocation” by Ukraine.

Two people familiar with discussions in Moscow also said there was no indication that Putin had decided to order another mass mobilisation. A senior western official likewise said there were no signs that a decision had been taken.

So it may yet be necessary but for now the usual underhanded tactics seem to be working well enough.

“It has turned into a hunt for people,” said Tabalov. “Under various pretexts, through deception, blackmail, violence and threats, they are forcing them to sign contracts.”

Tabalov said recruiters were increasingly targeting what he described as “socially marginalised” men, including those with debts, criminal cases or other vulnerabilities that could be used to put pressure on them to enlist.

In the southern Penza region, where some of the most aggressive draft methods have been reported, videos posted online have shown men being driven away in vans as relatives protested outside recruitment offices. Activists say some have been threatened with prosecution or beaten until they agreed to sign.

As always, it’s handy to live in an authoritarian police state where the authorities do what they want and the news covers what they are told. That’s Putin’s great advantage right now. But opposition to the war does exist and is certainly growing along with the gas lines. At some point, Putin will find he can’t make ends meet in Ukraine or at home.

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