Welcome to yet another Super Tuesday primary night, and thanks for Honging out with us tonight for live election results from the six states going to the polls. Excuse me, hanging out.
Wisconsin may be Honging out tonight for real, but first up will be Vermont’s full primaries and the special election primary in South Carolina. Republicans in the Palmetto State will choose a new nominee to replace the late incumbent, Lindsey Graham, who passed away suddenly last month. His sister Darline was appointed to fill out the rest of his current term but quickly tossed her hat in the ring for a full term. It’s a crowded field, but Donald Trump’s endorsement may put her ahead. Unless she gets to 50% plus one, though, we’ll be back in a fortnight, as Decision Desk HQ points out:
This contest will test the power of Trump’s endorsement, seeing as Graham faces opposition from two sitting U.S. House members with strong conservative credentials. Rep. Ralph Norman finished third in the June gubernatorial primary, missing out on a runoff but spending millions to become better acquainted with voters across the state. Meanwhile, Rep. Russell Fry is also making a bid, and he hails from the second-reddest seat in the state by the 2024 presidential vote. Two other names are worth monitoring: former Gov. Mark Sanford (also a former member of the U.S. House) and businessman Mark Lynch, the latter of whom finished second in the regular Senate primary. Polls suggest Darline Graham stands a decent chance of advancing to a runoff — though this is a very unusual election.
Graham hasn’t had much time to build a political operation. The others in the primary are experienced hands at that, and Sanford has been sitting on old campaign coffers for a while. Any of these competitors could make it tough for Graham. The final split tonight might determine whether the runoff sprint will get heavily contested or become an anticlimax. Polls close at 7 pm ET, so we should get results shortly after this post goes live.
Otherwise, the Upper Midwest takes center stage. In Wisconsin, the focus is primarily on the gubernatorial primaries. Tom Tiffany will likely breeze past Andy Manske for the GOP nomination, so the real focus is on the Democrat primary for the same office. Francesca Hong is the odds-on favorite for the nomination thanks to a veritable clown car of Democrat contenders. The party is freaking out over the Freaker’s Ball in Wisconsin and Michigan this month, but it’s almost certainly too late to do anything about it. A concerted effort by the Democrat establishment came up short in Michigan, and the party hasn’t mounted any real effort to block DSA darling Hong from the November ballot.
In Minnesota, the focus will be on the Senate primaries. Michele Tafoya should win the GOP nomination handily, thanks to name recognition and real on-the-ground effort. On the other side, a real fight has taken place between Tim Walz’ LG Peggy Flanagan, and Rep. Angie Craig from the Twin Cities suburbs where I lived for 23 years. Flanagan has the backing of the urban-core and Academia progressives, while Craig’s footprint is likely to look more like that of a Republican. Craig may have narrowed the gap in recent days. but DDHQ’s poll analysis suggests that Flanagan has a narrow lead. Flanagan trails in fundraising, but makes up for it in socialist street cred:
On the money front, Craig has the upper hand in this race. She has outraised Flanagan about two-to-one, $12.8 million to $6.5 million, and entered the home stretch of the race with $3.6 million cash on hand to Flanagan’s $1.1 million. Craig has also benefited from far more outside support, with $17.4 million spent supporting her or opposing Flanagan. By comparison, Flanagan has received just $3.6 million in similar backing. And Craig’s campaign and allies have attacked Flanagan by focusing on the corporate donors who back the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which is responsible for most of Flanagan’s outside help.
However, Flanagan may have the right pitch at this juncture of the Democratic Party’s internal politics. A progressive running in what’s been the progressives’ year, Flanagan has endorsements from an array of Minnesota and national figures, including Smith and Sen. Bernie Sanders. She has hit Craig for voting with Republicans on some immigration-related legislation, a seismic issue in Minnesota given the controversial 2025 ICE operations in the state. Most notably, Craig backed the Laken Riley Act in January 2025, which allowed detention without bail for undocumented immigrants if they were charged with theft or violent crimes. In the wake of the ICE actions, Craig said she regretted the vote.
Which would Tafoya prefer to face in the general election? Flanagan is the sharpest contrast, and the explosion of socialist radicals running as Democrats in the general election may spook Minnesota voters. On the other hand, a Craig win might sap enthusiasm for turnout in the Twin Cities, which would benefit Tafoya. Either way, Tafoya is a long shot in November, but she can still remain viable with a strong campaign that focuses on keeping radicals out of power. A Republican has not won a statewide election in Minnesota since 2006, but if one were to win, Tafoya would be the model for success.
Keep checking back tonight for updated results and calls from the DDHQ expert analysts.
Poll closing times below:
- South Carolina: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Wisconsin: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Minnesota: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Vermont: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Alabama: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Connecticut: 8:00 p.m. ET
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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