Raiders Number 1 Pick Plan Looks Set as Fernando Mendoza Skips Combine Throwing Session

The Raiders still have not made a public declaration about the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but the league’s read on the situation is not exactly subtle.

With the NFL Scouting Combine opening this week in Indianapolis, multiple executives and scouts polled around the league said they expect Las Vegas to keep the No. 1 overall pick and draft Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The strongest signal came in a recent leaguewide poll of executives and scouts, where the result on the Raiders question was unanimous: keep the pick, take the quarterback.

The poll result was listed plainly: “Keep the pick: Eight votes” and “Trade the pick: Zero votes.” That is about as close as NFL draft coverage gets to a locked room decision before a card is actually turned in. One AFC executive summed up the consensus this way: “Never say never, but never,” when asked about Las Vegas moving off the top spot.

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The timing matters because Mendoza is also making a draft process decision of his own. He is not expected to throw during on field workouts at the combine, and will instead wait to throw at Indiana’s Pro Day on April 1. A report circulating over the weekend stated, “Projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza will not throw at the combine this week, per source. He will throw at Indiana’s pro day on April 1st, when the school has multiple pass catchers that Mendoza wants to help showcase.”

That move is not unusual for top quarterback prospects, and it does not appear to have changed how teams view the top of the board. League evaluators still described Mendoza as the clear best passer in the class and a likely franchise reset for a team that badly needs one. One NFC executive said, “The Raiders’ roster is bad, but Mendoza is the best passer in the draft and it’s not close. You can’t pass that up. He’s accurate to all levels of the field with a good arm, plus-size and good character.”

Another NFC executive pointed to Mendoza’s personality and focus as a major selling point, saying, “That can be his superpower,” and adding, “… He’s really that focused, and I think guys will gravitate toward that.”

The Raiders have not ignored the obvious link. Team coverage heading into combine week acknowledged what “nearly every media member and draft analyst” expects and also noted that Mendoza’s 2025 film is likely enough for evaluators even if he does not do on field throwing in Indianapolis. The club’s own combine preview also confirmed he is part of the invited quarterback group.

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Combine week begins Monday, Feb. 23, in Indianapolis, with the public fan portion and on field drills at Lucas Oil Stadium running later in the week. Quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs are scheduled for on field drills on Saturday, Feb. 28. That means Mendoza can still handle interviews, medical checks, and team meetings this week while saving his throwing session for Bloomington on April 1.

From the Raiders’ perspective, the draft math is straightforward. The team finished last in the NFL in total offense at 245.3 yards per game, and league evaluators continue to describe quarterback as the biggest hole on the roster. There has been outside discussion about whether Las Vegas should trade back and collect more picks, but the executives polled said that scenario is highly unlikely unless a rare star quarterback trade materializes, which they also described as unlikely.

There is also the financial angle. Las Vegas is projected to have major cap flexibility this offseason, which gives the front office room to attack the roster around a rookie quarterback if it goes that route. The same league poll noted the Raiders could spend aggressively on the offensive line and skill positions after the draft, which is one reason evaluators see the Mendoza path as the cleanest one.

None of this officially puts Mendoza in silver and black yet. The combine is still a major checkpoint, and the Raiders will have more opportunities to evaluate him through the spring. But heading into the week, the message from around the league is consistent: Las Vegas has the top pick, needs a quarterback, and the quarterback at the top is Fernando Mendoza.

The combine starts now. The public guessing game, at least on this one, looks mostly over.

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