With Election Day just over five months away, the 2026 midterm election cycle has already seen a wide range of stunning upsets at the ballot box.
At the time of publication, 16 states have held primary elections, and a handful — including Texas and Florida — have conducted high-profile special elections for state legislative races. Here are 10 times since the new year voters delivered results that shocked analysts and observers alike.
January 31 — Democrat Flips Trump+17 State Senate Seat
Taylor Rehmet, a 33-year-old union leader and Air Force veteran, closed out the first month of 2026 by flipping a Texas State Senate seat President Donald Trump carried by 17 percentage points in the 2024 presidential race. Rehmet defeated Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss, the chief communications officer of conservative wireless carrier Patriot Mobile, in the special election.
Rehmet bested Wambsganss in the Fort Worth-based district by margin of more than 14 points, according to The Associated Press (AP), marking a massive 31-point shift to the left from the last presidential contest in 2020.
Two days later, former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer called the upset “8.5 on the Richter scale” on his podcast, “The Huddle.”
February 5 — Far-Left Democrat Beats Ex-Congressman In Primary
Left-leaning candidate Analilia Mejia, who ran on a platform of abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), came from behind to upset former Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in the crowded special Democratic primary to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill in a solidly blue New Jersey House seat. The race was not called by AP until Feb. 12, one full week after Election Day.
U.S. Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-NJ) takes part in a panel discussion during the Washington DC Premiere of “Lifelines” and Paid Leave for All Reception at the Dockmaster Building on May 20, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Paid Leave for All)
Malinowski, the overwhelming favorite when polls closed, led in the vote count for much of election night. Multiple outlets even prematurely called the race for the ex-lawmaker, a more moderate candidate. When all votes came in, however, Mejia’s share edged out that of Malinowski, 29.3% to his 27.6%, with the other 11 contenders splitting the remainder of the ballots, according to AP.
“In a moment of rising authoritarianism, of economic insecurity, of state-sanctioned violence, any old blue just won’t do,” the Bernie Sanders-endorsed Mejia said while on the campaign trail in January. “If you send ‘weak sauce’ to Congress, we will get ‘weak sauce’ back.”
Mejia went on to win the April 16 special election against her Republican opponent, and took office days later.
March 4 — Jasmine Crockett Loses Senate Primary She Gave Up House Seat For
Firebrand Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett did not seek reelection to her safely blue seat but instead ran for her party’s nomination to represent the Lome Star State in the U.S. Senate, only to lose to State Rep. James Talarico by six points, AP reported.
Crockett, known for her incendiary rhetoric against Trump and other Republicans, eschewed traditional campaigning, including forgoing a large ad buy until weeks before the primary. Talarico, meanwhile, aggressively flooded airwaves with ads in both English and Spanish, a decision which appeared to pay off as he comfortably won the contest’s Hispanic vote.
Crockett’s loss was seen as a boost for Democrats, as she was widely considered the party’s weaker general election candidate for the seat, which Republicans have held since 1961.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) speaks with supporters during her Senate Primary election night party on March 3, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
March 4 — GOP Primary Voters Give Dan Crenshaw The Boot
Crockett was not the only high-profile member of Texas’s House delegation to lose their seat March 4, as Lone Star State voters also handed four-term incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw a resounding defeat that night.
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL widely known as one of the most hawkish members of the House Republican Conference, lost his GOP primary by a stunningly wide 15-point margin to Republican Texas State Rep. Steve Toth, AP reported. The victorious challenger ran to Crenshaw’s right and had the support of Sen. Ted Cruz.
While Trump did not endorse Toth in the lead-up to the primary, Crenshaw was notably the only incumbent Republican Texas congressman to not win the president’s support. Toth is all but guaranteed to win the November election in the safely Republican Houston-area district.
In an interview with CBS News’s Margaret Brennan less than two weeks after the election, Crenshaw blamed online “misinformation” for his defeat stating, “I’m a unique Republican.”
“I’ve been the target of online smears and conspiracies for a very long time. My election was basically a product of that,” Crenshaw said, referring to allegations he had engaged in insider trading.
March 17 — JB Pritzker’s Candidate Wins Senate Nod Despite Money Hurdle
Democratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, the hand-picked candidate of Gov. JB Pritzker, beat Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi in the party’s primary to succeed longtime Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, who was retiring.
Despite being heavily outspent, Stratton bested Krishnamoorthi by more than seven points, AP reported, marking a huge victory for Pritzker, a rumored 2028 presidential candidate.
Krishnamoorthi’s campaign racked up a total of $30 million in receipts, $24 million in disbursements, and almost $7 million in cash on hand for the reporting period ending Feb. 25, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) records. Stratton’s haul for that period was reported as $4 million in receipts, less than $3 million in disbursements, and more than $1 million in cash on hand. (RELATED: Losing Democrat Candidate Charges 13 Bucks For Water After Dumping $24,000,000 On Failed Bid)
Illinois Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton speaks to the press alongside Governor JB Pritzker during a campaign stop at Manny’s Cafeteria and Delicatessen on March 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Stratton notably came under scrutiny during the campaign after she released an ad featuring a trio of her supporters saying, “Fuck Trump, vote Juliana,” with the candidate following up, “They said it, not me.”
As Illinois, dominated by Chicago’s Democratic-leaning voting population, is a reliably blue state, the Democratic nominee is the overwhelming favorite against Republican Don Tracy in the general election.
March 24 — Democrat Flips Trump+11 State House Seat Including Mar-a-Lago
Less than two months after Rehmet’s stunning victory in Texas, Democrats flipped yet another red state legislative seat which Trump had carried by double digits in 2024. This Florida State House district, based in Palm Beach County, also happened to encompass the president’s Mar-a-Lago residence.
Democratic candidate Emily Gregory, an Army wife and small business owner, defeated former town councilman Jon Maples, who had Trump’s endorsement, by 2.4 points in the special election, according to AP. The president won his home’s State House district by 11 points the last time he was on the ballot.
On the night of her win, Gregory told CNN’s Erin Burnett she had emphasized the ongoing national affordability crisis — which intensified amid the Iran war — during her successful campaign.
“[T]he last thing Florida families needed when they’re struggling is $4 gas,” she said.
May 5 — Trump-Backed Challengers Oust Republicans Who Blocked Redistricting
Following multiple special election losses for his party, Trump scored a significant victory during Indiana’s primaries, where five of the seven incumbent GOP state senators he targeted for defeat lost to his hand-picked challengers by landslide margins, according to AP.
The defeated Republican lawmakers, which Trump had denounced as RINOs (“Republicans In Name Only”), all had in common the fact they joined Democrats to block a proposed redistricting plan which would have likely caused the GOP to pick up two House seats in Indiana. The map had passed the state House of Representatives and was notably supported by both Trump and Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun.
A sixth state senator who Trump targeted won his race by just three votes; his challenger is seeking a recount.
May 16 — Trump-Convicting Senator Goes Down
The president in May continued to enjoy primary victories by his allies, notably garnering sufficient support for his pick to force two-term incumbent Republican Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy to finish in a distant third place and miss the state’s June 27 runoff.
Cassidy was one of seven GOP senators — one of three remaining in office — who voted to convict Trump following the president’s second impeachment in 2021. He is the first elected senator to lose renomination in a primary since 2012.
Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), with his wife Dr. Laura Cassidy by his side, addresses his supporters as he concedes his primary election contest during an event at Boudreaux’s Caterers on May 16, 2026 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Michael DeMocker/Getty Images)
The incumbent only managed to win 24.8% of the primary vote, lagging behind Trump-endorsed Republican Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow, who garnered 44.8% of the vote, and Republican Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming, who came in second with 28.3% of the vote, according to AP. Letlow and Fleming, a former Trump administration official and co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, will participate in the runoff with Cassidy eliminated.
Cassidy has also come under fire by many in Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement over his tenure as the chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. While the Louisiana Republican notably grilled now-Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy over vaccines during his confirmation hearing, he ultimately voted for Kennedy’s confirmation. (RELATED: Trump-Impeaching GOP Senator Reportedly Melted Down Over Not Getting Enough Money)
May 19 — Thomas Massie Loses To Trump-Backed Foe
Just three days after Cassidy’s ouster, Republican Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie became the latest casualty at the hands of a Trump-backed opponent, losing his bid for renomination to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein by just under 10 points, AP reported.
Massie, despite having endorsed Trump in the 2024 election, became a thorn in the president’s side in recent months, sparring with him on the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, the Iran war, and the One Big, Beautiful, Bill Act. Widely considered a libertarian-leaning Republican, Massie had been polling neck-and-neck with the Trump-endorsed Gallrein, making his near-double-digit loss a shock to many.
Pre-election polling suggests Gallrein won in part due to his more than 30-point advantage with the Baby Boomer generation, of which he is a member. The victorious challenger’s campaign was also bolstered by millions of dollars in outside spending, with much of it coming from states other than Kentucky. Pro-Israel lobbying groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) poured more than $8 million into the successful effort to unseat war critic Massie, according to FEC data compiled by Decision Desk HQ.
May 19 — Socialist Wins Primary For Super-Safe Blue House Seat
In an open Democratic House primary for a Philadelphia-based seat former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 77 points in 2024, avowed socialist Pennsylvania State Rep. Chris Rabb prevailed by a landslide margin.
Rabb, who had the endorsement of many prominent left-wing figures, including Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, won 44.7% of the primary vote, according to AP. Meanwhile, the primary’s second-place finisher, Democratic Pennsylvania State Sen. Sharif Street, won 29.2% of the vote while pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford, who had the backing of retiring incumbent Democratic Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans, finished in third place with just 24.1% of the vote.
A staunch supporter of so-called “reproductive rights,” Rabb made headlines in 2021 when he proposed legislation — intended as parody — seeking to force men to have vasectomies after they either father three children or turn 40. Rabb told NBC 10 at the time the joke bill was meant to spark discussion about laws restricting abortion.
“As long as state legislatures continue to restrict the reproductive rights of cis women, trans men and non-binary people, there should be laws to address the responsibility of men who impregnate them,” the far-left lawmaker, who has served in the state House since 2017, said in a statement while unveiling the legislation.
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