The US Blockade is Working

We have a good idea of what President Trump is trying to do in the Strait of Hormuz. He’s trying to blockade Iranian ports without putting boots on the ground or sailors in the actual Strait where they might be targets for whatever missiles Iran has left. But is the plan working? So far, the NY Times says it seems to be.

The U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports appeared to be working on Wednesday, with no Iranian-linked ships visibly able to leave the region since the blockade took effect 48 hours earlier, according to U.S. authorities and vessel-tracking firms.

Several vessels appear to have stopped or slowed after exiting the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, “which may reflect the deterrent effect of the blockade,” Kpler, a maritime data company, noted in a report on Wednesday…

Central Command said on Wednesday that nine vessels had complied with directions to turn around and re-enter an Iranian port or coastal area, though it did not give details. Kpler, which also uses satellite data to track ships when their location appears to have been falsified, said two ships with links to Iran and subject to U.S. sanctions appeared to have made U-turns. Eight additional ships that have historically carried Iranian cargo were stationary in the Gulf of Oman or slowing down, according to Ana Subasic, an analyst at Kpler.

One of the ships that reversed course, the Rich Starry, a Chinese tanker under U.S. sanctions, was traveling east through the strait on Tuesday before turning around. The other ship, the Ostria, was heading toward an Iranian port and was turned back before it could pick up cargo, most likely Iranian refined products.

Fox News has audio of the “final warning” that the US Navy broadcast to all ships in the area. “If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use force. The whole of the United States Navy is ready to force compliance.”

POWERFUL NEW AUDIO: U.S. forces give a FINAL WARNING to all ships that may try to get past the American naval blockade in the Middle East.

CENTCOM releasing the powerful message it’s sending to all vessels attempting to enter or leave Iranian ports:

“If you do not comply with… pic.twitter.com/vPrYkvYxt7

— Fox News (@FoxNews) April 15, 2026

Of course whether the blockade is physically working is a different question from whether or not it is working to achieve Trump’s ultimate ends. On that score the parties are divided. Earlier today, Trump said things were going well and China would be thanking him.

Trump also suggested yesterday that more talks with Iran (and Pakistan as an intermediary) might be happening sometime soon.

On the other hand, Iran is making threats to sink our ships.

The military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Wednesday warned that Iran would sink American ships in the Strait of Hormuz if the United States decided to “police” the key shipping bottleneck.

“Mr. Trump wants to become the police of the Strait of Hormuz. Is this really your job? Is this the job of a powerful army like the U.S.?” Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who was named as a military adviser by Khamenei last month, told state TV.

“These ships of yours will be sunk by our first missiles and have created a great danger for the U.S. military. They can definitely be exposed to our missiles and we can destroy them,” Rezaei, wearing his military uniform, told the state broadcaster.

Another Iranian commander promised to expand the conflict to the Red Sea:

The semi-official Mehr News Agency quoted Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, a commander with Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, saying that Iran could blockade the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea if the American blockade goes on and “creates insecurity for Iranian commercial ships and oil tankers.”

“If the aggressive and terrorist America continues its unlawful actions of maritime blockade in the region and creates insecurity for Iranian commercial ships and oil tankers, this action will be considered a prelude to violating the ceasefire, and the powerful Armed Forces of Iran will not allow any kind of export and import to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea,” it quoted him as saying.

“Iran will act with full force to defend its national sovereignty and interests.”

As for the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, it remains unclear if he is even conscious at this point. Just a few days ago, Reuters reported he was severely injured and is still recovering.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still recovering from severe facial and leg injuries suffered in the airstrike that killed his father at the beginning of the war, three people close to his inner circle told Reuters.

Khamenei’s face was disfigured in the attack on the supreme leader’s compound in central Tehran and he suffered a significant injury to one or both legs, all three sources said.

So there’s no telling how much of this is coming from Khamenei and how much is coming from the IRGC who are speaking in his name while he is in the hospital. In either case, it’s clear the people running things are as extreme as the leaders the US has already killed. They are going to take some more convincing so I wouldn’t expect this blockade to end this week. 

On the other hand, Iran’s economy was struggling when protests began back in January. How much of this can they take before their economy looks like Cuba’s?

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