It’s three months late, and it’s still conditional. Donald Trump still wants to cut a deal with the IRGC.
But this does look like progress, in terms of scales falling from eyes about the value of such a deal. At least, it appears as though the long-promised Bridge and Power Day may materialize soon – and repeatedly:
From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump has spent most of the last two weeks back on the offensive against the IRGC, escalating the strategic campaign over Iran’s refusal to allow normal shipping to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Even during the MOU period, the IRGC attacked shipping that refused to cooperate with its toll system or that traversed the Strait without Tehran’s permission. Since Trump declared the IRGC leadership “scum” and the ceasefire over, Iran has escalated those attacks.
That has had a significant impact on the price of oil, an issue that Trump knows will create political pain in the upcoming midterms – and worse:
Oil prices were about 4% higher on Wednesday morning following the eleventh consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran overnight, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point between the two sides.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, traded about 4% higher at $94.76. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3.9% to trade at $87.61.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to offer a conciliatory note and a diplomatic off-ramp this morning. However, Rubio also expressed considerable skepticism about the IRGC’s desire to find a workable solution to the conflict short of an American capitulation in the Hormuz crisis:
“The U.S. would love to reach a diplomatic settlement, we’d love to reach an agreement if it were possible with Iran … where they say we’ll no longer sponsor terrorism and we will not pursue a nuclear weapon or the things that you need for a nuclear weapon,” he said.
But he also said that “right now they don’t seem to be serious” about making a deal, adding that Tehran had made commitments in the Memorandum of Understanding reached last month, “and within two weeks violated it.”
This is accurate as far as it goes. “Right now” should be defined as “the last 47 years,” because what Rubio describes has been standard operating procedure for Iran’s regime during its entire existence. It has never negotiated in good faith, especially not with the West and the US. The regime has delusions of divine authority and recourse to taqqiya when dealing with what it sees as infidels. Their perfidy and utter lack of reliability may not formally preclude “a future agreement,” as Rubio suggests, but the 47-year pattern from Tehran and its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon should convince everyone that talking with this regime is an exercise in futility.
The only method of compliance with this regime is pain. And that pain has to be direct, consequential, and most importantly, asymmetrically devastating. Trump’s conception of this plan is a start, but probably not sufficient. An attack on one ship should cost the IRGC one power plant and one bridge the first time, two of each the second time, and so on. At some point, it should start costing the IRGC its islands in the Strait, some of which (the Abu Masa group) are also claimed by the United Arab Emirates, who would be happy to take control of them. Kharg Island should be high up on the list of Bridge and Power Day consequences, too, although that in itself has little direct impact on the Hormuz crisis.
Clearly, Trump has to make this stick, and soon. The US Navy has done what it can to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but the IRGC still has the capacity to attack commercial ships, and that is effectively closing the Strait despite Trump’s attempts to keep it open. If he can’t stop the attacks, oil will soar once again past the $100 mark, and this time global reserves won’t be able to buffer those effects. Bridge and Power Day may not be sufficient to end this quickly enough to prevent real economic damage. It might be time for Infrastructure Week instead.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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