Strategic patience for the win? Iran’s regime leaders thought they could force the US to buckle by strangling the global economy at the Strait of Hormuz. The US, however, has an actual blue-water navy, and that tends to matter in blockades involving a country entirely reliant on sea trade for its only valuable export economy.
As the Wall Street Journal concedes, Donald Trump’s Hormuz blockade is a lot less “leaky” than the IRGC’s. And as Trump himself pointed out yesterday, the Strait may not matter for very much longer anyway:
By squeezing the Strait of Hormuz, both the U.S. and Iran expected to outlast their foe, believing time would work in their favor.
Now, it looks like the trend is moving against Tehran.
The U.S. naval blockade has prevented Iran from shipping any oil from the Persian Gulf since July. At the same time, despite Iranian drone and missile attacks, Washington has been able to assist Gulf Arab states in moving significant amounts of their crude through the waterway, keeping global oil prices from surging above critical levels.
Talk about a bad bet. The IRGC may have convinced itself that Trump would buckle out of domestic political pressures, not to mention diplomatic pushes from Gulf states concerned about attacks on their own energy infrastructure. And for a few months, anyway, that position looked accurate. Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey – and at times, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – pushed Trump into fruitless negotiations with the IRGC, which not only went nowhere but changed nothing even when agreements did get reached.
In July, Trump stopped talking about deals. Instead, he started talking about increasing the blockade, and eventually expanded the economic warfare into Scott Bessent’s “economic D-Day.” Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan are still trying to get the band back together in Islamabad, but Trump has made clear this week that he has no interest.
The WSJ reports on the results of the IRGC’s bet, at least at the moment:
But now it is clear that Tehran’s calculation six months ago, as it shut down the Strait of Hormuz and bottled up one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply, proved erroneous. The move didn’t trigger a worldwide economic crisis or force President Trump to end the war on Iranian terms. …
For now, however, Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is slowly but surely being eroded by the U.S. military campaign in the region. Crude oil prices remain below $100 a barrel on international markets, elevated but well below the critical threshold for the global economy. In part, this was due to China drawing on domestic reserves and reducing imports.
It isn’t just about oil, of course. Shipments of liquefied natural gas, fertilizers and other commodities also remain stuck in the Gulf, choking the economies of Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain—nations that don’t have alternative sea outlets.
That’s true – for now. However, the al-Sharaa government in Syria stepped up this week to declare itself open for business in oil distribution. With Syria starting to stabilize in its post-Assad era, al-Sharaa wants to bring investors into his country to turn it into a pipeline for the western Gulf nations to the Mediterranean. Naturally, Donald Trump has enthusiastically endorsed the idea:
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Syria acting as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz would be “great.” This comment was prompted by The Washington Post’s headline, which noted that Syria was “eyeing role as [a] Middle East hub, offers options to bypass Hormuz.” …
There are plans for Syria to serve as a means of transferring oil to the Mediterranean. However, a recent report at Reuters noted that “Iraq’s plans to export oil via a pipeline through Syria to avert future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will likely require four years of construction and cost at least $15 billion.” The report added that the idea was receiving “initial support for feasibility studies from a consortium including Chevron.”
Even if the project gets expedited, the construction of a pipeline system will take several years. There are plans to rehabilitate a 1950s-era pipeline and restore it to service, but that won’t happen overnight. However, launching these projects will make clear that Iran’s influence on global economics will be ending sooner or later, with or without a resolution in Hormuz, and most pointedly, whether Iranian crude comes on the market or not.
The IRGC is running out of options, now and in the future. The US Navy has increased the “leakage” from Iran’s attempted blockage to nearly the normal level of shipping through the Strait, at least for crude. Iran tried to cut a deal with Oman that would eliminate those routes set up by the US Navy, but Trump threatened to make them the next US target if they interfered or attempted to “toll” commercial traffic. Oman caved a couple of days ago:
Oman has quietly rejected Iran’s request to jointly charge service fees on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, The Post has learned — averting a clash with President Trump, who has threatened to rain down bombs on the US ally.
A high-ranking regional official said that Muscat declined to consent to charging fees — even on a voluntary basis — for environmental and security services, contrary to a statement last week from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The terms of a proposed revenue-sharing deal had not been finalized, even by Tehran, a US official told The Post last week — indicating the IRGC jumped the gun.
The IRGC won’t surrender any time soon, if at all. However, the clock is ticking on their regime, and they know it. As long as Trump maintains his strategic patience, the regime will slowly get strangled to the point where a popular revolt might succeed, especially if the regime’s thugs stop getting compensated. Trump can do this for two more years, by which time the pipeline options might render moot what’s left of Iran’s leverage. The US only needs the political will to maintain strategic patience with the blockade, and the strength to enforce sanctions on the IRGC’s enablers.
Addendum: Strategic patience does not preclude enforcement of the blockade nor responses to attacks. As Trump warned this week, the US is now applying consequences for Iranian attacks on American targets to its merchant tanker fleet:
BREAKING: U.S. forces “permanently disabled” two Iranian oil tankers and “completely destroyed” another after IRGC launched ballistic missiles toward an American aircraft carrier and destroyer, U.S. Central Command said.
Read more: https://t.co/oLWg9pr3n4 pic.twitter.com/XQU9AtxbYc
— ABC News (@ABC) September 5, 2026
Iran lacks the capacity to replace these tankers, and lacks the resources to buy them. Those attacks on American targets are carrying a high long-term cost for the IRGC without any corresponding benefit.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are once again respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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