We have a getaway day in baseball, which means there are a lot of series wrapping up today. There are a few that are starting, but for the most part, every team tends to play every Wednesday. That means there is a ton of games to sift through and find good bets to place. I personally love the one I have for today’s game between the Phillies and Red Sox.
The Philadelphia Phillies have already had a wild season, and we haven’t even fully reached the middle of May. They are 20-22, a year after being one of the best teams in baseball. The offseason offered some hope as they re-signed two of their key players, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. However, this year hasn’t gone according to plan yet. They fired their manager after a 9-19 start, and since that move, the team has responded. Under Don Mattingly, the team is 11-3.
Looking to keep that run going for the Phillies is tonight’s starter, Andrew Painter. Looking at his stat line, it gives you a lot of pause about backing the Philadelphia right-hander. For the year, Painter is 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. To make matters worse, he has a worse road ERA than home ERA. In three road outings, he has allowed 12 earned runs over 14.2 innings. He is also coming off his worst start of the season – eight earned runs over 3.2 innings. The Red Sox have never faced Painter, so he might have a bit of an edge, but teams are hitting .295 against him the first time through the lineup.
The Boston Red Sox are never void of news stories or attention, but they’ve also had their fair share of stories this season. They are just 17-24 for the year, and the expectation was that this team was going to compete for the AL East. I don’t necessarily think that is impossible, but they need to figure out their hitting soon. They have just 157 runs scored for the season, which is among the lowest in the league. They also fired their manager, Alex Cora, but they haven’t seen the turnaround they had hoped for. They are 7-7 since Cora was dismissed. This one didn’t seem as welcome to the players.
ALEX CORA TURNED DOWN PHILLIES’ MANAGERIAL JOB JUST DAYS AFTER BEING FIRED BY RED SOX: REPORT
One guy the team had hoped would provide some stability for the club this season is tonight’s starter, Sonny Gray. He was acquired from the Cardinals in the offseason, and so far he has been a strong contributor for the club. He is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has been great at Fenway with a 1.80 ERA. The problem is that he hasn’t gone very deep into games. He has reached the sixth inning just twice in six outings. Phillies hitters are decent against Gray with a .250 batting average overall.
Alec Bohm is the guy you’d probably want to take a look at if you’re going for a player prop — he is 6-for-13 against Gray. Schwarber is 2-for-24 against him with 10 strikeouts so his under 0.5 hits might be a look (+153), but he will almost certainly get an at-bat or two against the Red Sox bullpen. Schwarber at 2+ strikeouts is +126. I’d probably go for a Schwarber play over Bohm.
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For the game, I’m taking the Red Sox. I know the line is moving in favor of the Phillies, so I’ll cut this down and just play the first five innings. Gray has been good at home, a more reliable starter, and Painter has been awful overall. If he has been bad overall, he’s been a disaster on the road. Give me Boston through five at -135.
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